HRRR Strikes Again?

The latest HRRR spits out 4/5 inches of snow for Madison, as seen below. 

As has been the case with the last three storms to hit the Midwest and Great Lakes, there has been a southerly trend even as close to 24 hours out. Which poses the questions, is the heavy snow pack over the Northern Plains and Canada altering the storm track? The argument could be made that the models are showing bias to move the storm track north, due to climatology programmed into the model. But with a deep snow pack firmly in place the largest temperature gradient and consequently the storm track has remained further south compared to what is normal for this time of year…

            We’ll see tomorrow if the “Answer Key” is correct once again. The HRRR is notorious for pinpointing the heaviest bands of precip, snow fall and even Supercells with uncanny precision. More on this later, with a brief recap of today’s severe weather.

“Convergence”