Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Laser Tag - Briefing
Greetings long distance internet travelers,
As you are all aware, laser tag challenge 2.0 is happening this evening at the Discovery Zone in downtown klanbioandiobna, XZ (look, we cannot give away the city we're from, because otherwise you'll find out we're from What Cheer, IA). I know I know, you are all very excited about this, but don't worry, I am too. That's why I've dedicated this blog post to discussing the necessary strategies to succeeding at laser tag.
First, watch this video to get a quick intro briefing on laser tag:
Great! Now that you know what's going on, it's time to discuss our battle plan to defeat the most talented, strategical, vicious, and laziest people on the planet...children.
Strategy #1: Cheating is okay!
You know how everyone tells you not to cheat in laser tag? Don't listen to those people. Cheating is most definitely allowed.
"But wait Helicity, why would you say something so immoral?"
Don't worry, it's not immoral. Remember, you'll be playing against a plethora of children and young adults that will do ANYTHING IT TAKES to win this game. They'll run between your legs, follow you in the arena, and even continue to shoot you after you have been deactivated. How classless is that? WE CANNOT LET THEM WIN! If you need to cover your shield for a minute, do so. If the kid players follow you, you follow them back. If they are annoying you, pick them up and hold them hostage...they'll have nowhere to hide (see video reference below for this)
Strategy #2: Make the children come to you by "Camping Out"
When playing against kids, one should remember that effort is inversely proportional to winning. How does one accomplish success on the battlefield with minimal effort? Have your whole team hang out in one room, enjoy a nice conversation and throwback with your teammates, and LET THE CHILDREN COME TO YOU! This by definition is called "camping out," and is also known as "cherry picking." If you do this, not only will you and your teammates easily take out your laser tag nemeses, but you also don't have to walk around and exhaust yourself in pursuit of one individual at a time.
As a guide, I marked regions where "camping out" will lead to high success rates:
The green stars indicate excellent regions to chillax and wait for those pesky kids to come find you, so you can deactivate them all day long. Notice that the white star marks a suggested spot as well. I mean, if you think about it, if they can't get inside the level, how will they win?
Strategy #3: Taunting
There's an old saying that goes, "Sticks and stones will break my bones, but words will never hurt me."
Well, since you don't have sticks and stones to break your opponent's bones, then words are your only option. Most kids at this point in their life enjoy laser tag, because it's a free opportunity for them to apply taunting and name calling without their parents yelling at them (especially since no one will hear you when there's loud laser gun shots and music drowning out the noise). Don't give them the satisfaction of taunting. TAUNT BACK! For example, say that you are on the yellow team, and a kid tells you that your team stinks because yellow is the color of pee (actual quote used here, no joke!). In this case, some suggestions for comebacks are
1) "Well, if we are like pee, then at least we're sterile!"
2) Can't wait to play you all evening...oh wait that's right! You have a curfew!
3) "Oh yeah? Your color is the color of (whatever offends them or angers them)"
4) "You're adopted, your parents don't love you!"
Well, there are many other ways to taunt as well, so be creative! Hit 'em where it hurts!
Well, that's all I can think of for now. Whatever happens out there on the laser tag battlefield, make sure you are having lots of fun....and making sure your team defeats the kids.
Peace,
Helicity
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
HRRR Strikes Again?
The latest HRRR spits out 4/5 inches of snow for Madison, as seen below.
As has been the case with the last three storms to hit the Midwest and Great Lakes, there has been a southerly trend even as close to 24 hours out. Which poses the questions, is the heavy snow pack over the Northern Plains and Canada altering the storm track? The argument could be made that the models are showing bias to move the storm track north, due to climatology programmed into the model. But with a deep snow pack firmly in place the largest temperature gradient and consequently the storm track has remained further south compared to what is normal for this time of year…
We’ll see tomorrow if the “Answer Key” is correct once again. The HRRR is notorious for pinpointing the heaviest bands of precip, snow fall and even Supercells with uncanny precision. More on this later, with a brief recap of today’s severe weather.
“Convergence”
Severe Weather Outlook - March 8, 2011 C.E.
Bore da (which means Hello in Welsh, or something),
Well, it looks like that old trickster dryline in the southern United States is going to be at it again, along with a little help from his/her/its friends (aka a synoptic scale cyclone developing in the Southwest; okay so only one friend this time). Currently the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) down in Oklahoma is predicting a 5-10% chance of tornadoes forming in Lousiana later this afternoon. Their claim is that the combination of upper level jet streak dynamics (with the right jet entrance region, or upper (lower) level divergence (convergence) region over Arkansas and Louisiana, implying upward vertical motion), along with the dryline feature and frontogenetic forcing (in this order) will lead to severe weather in this region.
A look at the 15 UTC (9 am LST, so about an hour ago) NAM (initialized 00 UTC) 300 mb (plot of wind speed (fill pattern, with more purplely colors indicating stronger wind speeds) and wind barbs (knots) and geopotential height in units of dam (black contours)) shows that the right jet entrance region of a local jet streak is indeed over the Lousiana region. This will provide some initial upward motion in this region.
Interestingly though, a small jet streak feature off to the west will move into the region around 18-21 UTC (12-3 pm LST), with the right jet exit region over Lousiana. Since a thermally indirect circulation exists in the exit region of the jet, subsidence (downward vertical motion) will act to warm the the middle to upper troposphere. While at times this type of setup can lead to dynamic destabilization, allowing for the atmosphere to become unstable over time and fire
up some nice convection later in the afternoon, this can also inhibit severe thunderstorms by warming the air too much such that lapse rates decrease and are not as favorable for development of strong upward motion. My guess (along with Croix "Convergence", the man himself) is that it might be limiting thunderstorm development initially.
Forunately, the dryline comes to the rescue! During sunset hours (00 UTC Wednesday, March 9, aka 6 pm LST in Louisiana), the dryline moves into the region, along with the start-up of the nocturnal low level jet. The dryline acts as a lifting mechanism for warm, moist surface parcels to rise as the drier, more dense air forces the less dense moist air to rise. Along with this, the low level jet (see 925 dewpoint map, where color fill pattern is dewpoint, wind barbs are in knots and contours are height contours in dam) shows wind speeds reaching nearly 50 knots overnight over this region, and then near the Alabama-Mississippi border!!! Along with this, favorable CAPE (measure of instability) values > 1000 J/kg, Lifted Index less than -4 (a measure of lift; less than -4 is good for severe weather) and helicity (measure of the "corkscrewiness" or rotation more or less from 0-1 km (in this case)) values near 200 m^2 s^-2 reside in this region.
While strong helicity values are also present in Arkansas and Missouri, the instability and lifted index values are not quite there for a tornado outbreak, but organized severe weather (or at least strong convection) in the form of an MCS is still likely with high dewpoint values (55+ deg F), precipitable water (~1.5 in) and lift from the synoptic cyclone present.
Above: Lifted Index (fill), mean sea level pressure (mb) contours 00 UTC Wed 8 Mar 2011
Above: 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity (fill and contour, m^2 s^-2).
Which leads me to the discussion regarding the forcing from the synoptic scale cyclone. A look at the 00 UTC Wed. (still from NAM 00 UTC Tuesday model run) 925 mb map (Wind speed in fill pattern similar to 300 mb map shown earlier, with heights in black contour and wind barbs in knots) shows the location of the cyclone over over the Kansas-Missouri border. This cyclone will provide frontal lift as it moves to the north-east, aiding in the generation of thunderstorms (and supercells farther south of the cyclone, near Louisiana) during the evening to overnight hours.
This blog post was sort of rushed due to my necessity to solve the mysteries of tropical meteorology today at home base, but the general idea is that the combination of upper level jet dynamics, the low level jet and dryline combo, along with the synoptic level forcing from a strong low level cyclone is going to create some interesting weather in Louisiana. Louisiana is in the perfect spot, since it is most affected by the three weather forcings described above, and also is in the zone for most instability and high values of lifted index. I'd say that a few tornadoes will form, mainly during the later evening hours and overnight. Those in Alabama and Mississippi should be on the lookout for tomorrow morning, since any generated convection will move east and possibly induce tornadogenesis in a region that is predicted to have high values of helicity and reasonable instability tomorrow morning.
Over/under on tornado reports: 5
Over/under on wind reports: 34
Over/under on hail reports: 9
Are these over/under's reasonable? I honestly don't know, but I've never done this before so it's a nice starting point.
Peace,
Helicity
NOTE: ALL MAPS FROM TWISTERDATA.COM.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Inauguration of Bloggin'
This will be the new home of Helicity and Convergence to spew their ideas, thoughts and mad knowledge on any and all things. It will be random in nature; our only promise is it will not contain any political angles or opinions(And for the most part G-Rated). It will strictly be about the adventures of Helicity and Convergence.
First up is the next month’s forecast, with attention to the Midwest. A post about Colorado’s weather over the next 10+ days will be posted later. March should close with two storms to keep an eye on. The first is set to bring heavy snow to portions of Nebraska, Iowa, MN, WI and UP of Michigan. Here in Madison the event should be a mixed bag of precip, with everything from sleet, freezing rain, rain and snow. Only minor snow accumulation, if any is in store for Madison. This will likely occur on the back side of the storm as it pulls out of the region.
A few minor disturbances will affect the region between the end of this week and the 4th week of March. Then we turn our heads to what should be another major storm that will bring heavy snow, possibly late season blizzard and severe weather for the Rockies, Plains and Great Lakes. If the track of this is a northerly, then there might be chas’able severe weather in Illinois! If it has a southerly track, well, then Madison might be under the gun for one final and major snow storm. Details on this as it unfolds. Perhaps this is the GFS showing the storm poised for the 4th week of March? (see below). Nice looking trough (meaning low pressure system) over the western third of the US.
As most in the north central portions of the US are sick of winter, the first BIG warm up should occur in the second week of April with a legitimate shot at 70 degrees here in Madison. IF there is ample moisture ahead of the inevitable cold front, well, then, just maybe, we can do some chasing here in the Midwest. Updates as necessary.
Few notes: Expect an above average year for severe weather. February had, at last count, 40 Tornadoes, with March looking equally as active. This bodes well for baggin' a tornado!
Switching gears, Diebler was unconscious today versus our beloved badgers, making for a blowout. This does however turn the clock to the most wonderful time of the year, MARCH MADNESS and spring break! Once again the journey west to the Mountains is happening for SB, hoping the snow cooperates and provides plentiful powder! The trip will be shot POV style as the GoPro is poised for its first true test.
"Convergence"
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)